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Ripple effects of the conflict in Ukraine: Truths and Myths

What does data tell us about the secondary effects of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on economies in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia

OVERVIEW

This report provides a commentary on relevant datasets (mainly on food prices and food inflation) as it examines trends related to the economic effects of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on selected countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. ACAPS assessed publicly available information and data on the economic impacts of the war resulting from supply chain disruptions, comparing different sources and datasets and highlighting any similarities or contradictions. The methodology behind the datasets and analyses assessed was considered in the commentary, whenever available.

ACAPS has cross-checked information shared in media articles and reports by humanitarian organisations with data analysis findings to determine whether the economies of selected countries were truly impacted by the effects of Russian invasion of Ukraine on global supply chains and to what extent. Many countries in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East have shown an increase in commodity prices following the start of the invasion, but this increase has either lasted between March–May only or followed the price trends observed for the same period in previous years. Only the economies of a few countries stood out as having truly been affected by the conflict in Ukraine: highlighted in this report are Lao and Zimbabwe.

Many of the secondary data sources that ACAPS has looked at for this report only provided an analysis of the period following the start of the invasion on 24 February, without taking into account price trends over the years and pre-existing humanitarian crises and challenges that countries in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East have already been facing for years.

Source: ACAPS